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Singapore job market could recover in three months
But the days when Singaporeans can pick and choose jobs freely are over, says acting manpower minister

By Chuang Peck Ming , The Business Times, 22 Dec 2003
(SINGAPORE) The unemployment rate, which hit 5.9 per cent in September, may have already exceeded the record high of 6 per cent posted in March 1986 - and it's still rising.

But a turnaround may just be around the corner. Ng Eng Hen, Acting Minister of Manpower, sees a recovery in the job market as early as three months away.

In MOM's soon-to-be-released annual report, an advance copy of which BT has secured, Dr Ng says: 'If the Singapore economy recovers, then the job situation should recover in the second or third quarter next year. This year it is likely to get worse because the job market usually lags economic recovery.' The signs of an early turnaround are good. Singapore's economy in Q3 expanded 17.3 per cent over Q2, the strongest quarter-on-quarter growth since September 1995. And going by various leading indicators, the recovery will gather momentum in the quarters ahead.

Early last week, labour chief Lim Boon Heng said the unemployment rate should ease to around 4 per cent in 2004, when the economy is officially projected to grow 3 to 5 per cent. Dr Ng is less optimistic. He told Channel News Asia on Friday that he expects an unemployment rate of 4.5 to 5.5 per cent in the coming year.

Dr Ng does not see the job market returning to the boom years' near-full employment rate of 2 per cent. The long-term unemployment rate now is likely to range at 3-4 per cent, according to him. In MOM's annual report, he says: 'The job buffet period (when job seekers could freely pick and choose the jobs they want) is over for Singaporeans.'

Other countries, including China, have emerged to compete with Singapore for foreign investments and to host multinational corporations, he explains. 'This means we will have to find new formulae that will give us a competitive edge.' By moving up the value chain, the investments Singapore attracts will create fewer jobs.

The saving grace, however, is that workers in Singapore can maintain their standards of living in the new job market because they can now command higher pay. But workers must be able to add more value to their jobs, Dr Ng says.

'Your greatest protection (of your job in the new economic environment) is that you are your own marketeer,' he says. 'You are Your Personal Incorporated. Your own value, in terms of what you bring to the job, is a premium regardless of the employer. So each person in this new landscape will have to ask himself: What value do I bring to this job?'

Dr Ng says workers now understand the new situation, as they are less choosy in accepting available jobs. 'Our figures show that previously only 10-15 per cent of people took up jobs as recently as six months to a year ago. We now have 25 per cent taking up jobs.' Over the past year, he says, MOM was 'stretched and tested' and has now 'matured' and is more flexible in helping Singaporeans through the newly set-up Singapore Workforce Development Agency in training and finding jobs.

In 2004, Dr Ng says, MOM is likely to focus on two big areas: wages and CPF. It will push employers and workers to accept a more flexible wage system, or face more retrenchments. 'For CPF, the issue of retirement adequacy is a huge area that we have to look at,' he says. 'We need to help Singaporeans plan for their retirement and to maximise returns.'

Separately, in a speech delivered on Saturday evening at a union function, Dr Ng said that the tripartite taskforce, which was formed in July this year to work on wage restructuring, will be releasing its report and recommendations in January.